Growing Hope on China Market Reopen A Potential Boon for the K-Pop - Global X ETFs Hong Kong

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Growing Hope on China Market Reopen
A Potential Boon for the K-Pop

By: Lizzy Liu

Starting around 2016-2017, China had “Hallyu” ban on K-pop due to political tensions over THAAD, affecting K-pop concerts, TV shows, and other cultural exports. However, after 8 years, the situation is likely to end as Korea Economic Daily reported on 20 Feb that China may lift its ban on K-pop culture as early as May. K-pop stocks rallied on the growing hope of the reopen of China market.

Following our previous articles on the K-pop industry (Capturing the Rally of K-pop; Korea Entertainment – Ready for Revival), we will further analyze the potential impact of China market reopening. In the short term, China’s reopening will directly boost profit through offline concerts, while the long-term upside is substantial driven by further penetration into this large population market. Our Global X K-pop and Culture ETF (3158) has significant exposure to K-pop content sector, with 4 leading entertainment companies accounting for 37% of its holdings.

China Used to Be a Focused Market Before the ‘Hallyu’ Ban

Prior to the ban, China is a crucial target market for K-pop companies. Among leading entertainment companies, SM was more heavily reliant on China market, with groups like EXO (featuring 4 Chinese members out of total 12 members) and sub-units such as Super Junior-M and EXO-M specifically targeting Chinese audiences. SM also collaborated with China tech giants – Tencent and Alibaba – for distribution. Similarly, JYP had groups like Miss A (2 Chinese out of 4) and Got7 (Jackson Wang) with Chinese members. YG’s BigBang and 2NE1 also enjoyed strong fan base in China with BigBang joined major Chinese TV shows and charted top on QQ Music. HYBE (formerly Big Hit) has relatively less exposure pre-ban since BTS blew up more globally post-2017. Another example is cosmetics companies Amorepacific, whose brands, such as Laneige and Innisfree, once enjoyed substantial success in China with China market accounting for 19%/24% of revenue in 2016/2017 (vs 10% in 2024E).

Post-ban, K-pop companies shifted focus to other markets like Southeast Asia, US, and Japan. This period witnessed an unprecedented expansion of K-pop’s global influence. If China reopens, we believe the direct impact will be focused on offline concerts as even during the ban, companies remained actively engaged online by promoting artists to acquire fans and monetizing through eCommerce such as album sales, contents, merchandise and membership.

Quantifying the Impact of China Reopen

To gauge the potential impact, we can analyze Bigbang’s large scale tour during 2015-2016, with c.200k/450k attendees in 2015/2016 in mainland China. Projecting a similar scale for top-tier artists upon the China market’s reopening, with an estimated audience ranging 200-400k per artist annually, we can estimate incremental revenue and operating profit.

Considering a mid-range scenario (300k audience per artist), and identifying number of top artists across the four major agencies – HYBE (4 – BTS, Seventeen, Enhypen, TXT), JYP (2 – Twice, StrayKids), SM (2 – Aespa, NCT), YG (1 – Blackpink) –  China concerts alone could generate HSD to teens growth in OP level.

Further Upside over Long-Term

The impact extends beyond immediate offiline concert revenue.  Increased media exposure will foster fanbase growth, driving sales of merchandise, digital content, and memberships. Furthermore, the cultural phenomenon of K-pop could generate significant synergies with other Korean industries, such as K-beauty and K-food.  The reopening of China market is not simply a return to past successes but potentially a springboard for even greater expansion within China and beyond.

Global X K-pop and Culture ETF
(3158)
Listing Date 19 Mar 2024
Reference Index Solactive K-pop and Culture Index
Primary Exchange Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Total Expense Ratio 0.68% p.a.
Product Page Link

Source: Mirae Asset; Data as of February 2025.

Authored by:

Lizzy Liu

27 Feb 2025

Date : 27 Feb 2025

Category : Research & Insights

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