Hedging USD: West Germany 1974 and China 2026 - Global X ETFs Hong Kong

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Hedging USD: West Germany 1974 and China 2026

By: Global X HK ETF Research

If we were to summarize signals from the US bond market into a single point, it is the “potential weakness of the US dollar”.

The US 10-year government yield has recently spiked to 5%. This surge is not merely a reflection of inflationary pressures. It is a direct warning from the market that the federal debt load has grown unsustainable.

[Figure 1] The US 10-year government bond yield

(Source) Bloomberg, 21 September 2026

Thus, the US government is likely to allow high inflation to run unchecked as an “inflation tax“—effectively the only viable escape for its mountain of debt.

US Needs an Old Playbook

This is a playbook the US used in the 1970s, a period when interest rates were largely kept lower than inflation rates. As a result, the US Dollar Index fell from the 120 range from early 1970s to the 80 range by the end of the decade. The devaluation was even more stark against the West German Deutsche Mark, falling from 3.6 marks per dollar in 1971 to 1.7 marks in 1979—over 50%.

While Paul Volcker’s appointment as the US Fed Chair in 1979 revived the dollar by pushing interest rates up to 20%, he had a luxury that today’s policymakers lack: a light debt burden.

In the 1970s, US government debt averaged 30% of GDP, and the annual deficit was 2%. Today, the debt-to-GDP ratio towers above 120%, and the annual deficit tracks at 6% of GDP, severely limiting how far the Fed can push rates without triggering a debt payment crisis.

In other words, there is a growing likelihood that interest rates will remain below inflation moving forward—a dynamic that is poised to weaken the US dollar.

[Figure 2] US Dollar Index in the 1970s

(Source) Bloomberg

In such a scenario, what are the viable investment alternatives?

Alternatives to USD Asset (1): Gold + Covered Call Strategy

First, as universally acknowledged, holding gold serves as an effective macroeconomic hedge. However, gold has an inherent drawback: it yields neither dividends nor interest income. To bridge this gap, Global X has introduced a gold-based covered call strategy, which overlays an income-generating strategy onto gold asset, Global X Gold Covered Call Active ETF (3533 HK) * (*This is a synthetic ETF).

The fund has demonstrated an average monthly distribution yield of more than 1% over its first three months since the launch in 2026(Distribution rate is not guaranteed. Distribution may be made out of capital 1). Investors must note, however, the trade-off: this strategy caps potential capital appreciation during sharp gold price rallies, a constraint embedded within any covered call strategy.

Alternatives to USD Asset (2): RMB + Dividend Strategy

The second alternative is allocating to RMB-denominated assets. We anticipate that the RMB is highly likely to strengthen over the next few years for two primary reasons:

First, in our view, currency adjustment is effectively the only remaining mechanism to resolve the global trade imbalance between China and the rest of the world. China’s manufacturing competitiveness has grown so dominant that it can no longer be counterbalanced without currency revaluation. According to the IMF, the Chinese currency is undervalued by 10%–15%, while Goldman Sachs places this undervaluation even higher, at 20%–25%.

Up to this point, the US has attempted to counter China through tariffs and sanctions. However, these measures have largely fallen short. China’s trade surplus expanded to $1.2 trillion in 2025 and exports to the US have even accelerated in recent months. Consequently, we believe the US will have no choice but to revert to historical playbook, using currency adjustment to correct its trade deficit.

In this regard, West Germany in the 1970s and present-day China share a resemblance: both standout as dominant manufacturing powerhouses running massive trade surpluses.

Second, among major economies, China is uniquely focused on fiscal discipline. The escalating sovereign debt crisis plagues among most developed nations like France, UK, and Japan. 10-year government bond yields across the UK, France, and Japan also have surged this year, moving in lockstep with US Treasuries. China is certainly not immune to debt problem, particularly with local government debt (LGFV) issues. However, unlike the US, over the past several years, Beijing has executed a painful de-risking campaign.

Admittedly, the primary drawback of allocating to RMB assets is China’s low yield environment. The Chinese 10-year government bond yield has declined to 1.7% in Sep 2026, widening the yield gap against US Treasuries to roughly 3.3 percentage points.

Fortunately, Global X provides a sophisticated workaround to this limitation. We highlight the Global X Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Enhanced Income ETF (3555 HK) as the premier vehicle for this strategy.

First, China currently offers an ideal macro backdrop for dividend-centric investing. While the property market headwinds persist, China’s dominant manufacturing competitiveness provides a resilient economic anchor.

This economic resilience supports robust equity dividends, as exemplified by the Global X Hang Seng High Dividend Yield ETF (3110 HK), which has historically delivered an annualized dividend yield of around 6% (Distribution rate is not guaranteed. Distribution may be made out of capital 2). Nevertheless, standalone high-dividend equities remain vulnerable to stock market volatility and potential capital drawdowns.

To mitigate drawdown risk, 3555 HK implements a partial covered call option strategy that holds high-dividend equities while systematically writing call options on the benchmark index to cover 30% to 50% of the exposure. This tactical overlay provides a robust downside cushion.

[Figure 3] Investment scheme of 3555 HK

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