CATL 3Q24 Results Beat With Robust Outlook Ahead - Global X ETFs Hong Kong

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CATL 3Q24 Results Beat With Robust Outlook Ahead

By: Jeff Huang

CATL reported solid 3Q24 results on 18 Oct after market. Net profit of Rmb13bn was +26% YoY. Excluding the one-off asset impairment of Rmb4.7bn, CATL’s 3Q24 core earnings implied c.30% beat vs consensus. 3Q24 revenue of Rmb92bn declined by 12% YoY mainly due to the c.30% YoY decrease in battery prices. EV Battery Unit GP of c.Rmb200/kWh was higher than consensus estimates, driven by product mix premiumization and cost savings from manufacturing advantages. ESS battery sales volume grew by 63% YoY driven by solid US demand, and accounts for c.25% of total battery sales volume for CATL.

Outlook – Solid Demand and Profitability Ahead

Robust demand in 3Q drove capacity utilization recovery, and CATL is operating at nearly full capacity currently. Management is seeing even better 4Q order momentum as compared to 3Q, which should support CATL to regain revenue growth in 4Q on the back of stabilizing battery prices. EU OEMs are on track to launch new EV models as the auto industry stick to 2025 carbon emission targets, which should support volume growth for CATL. Product mix upgrades bode well more stable profitability. Management expects Shenxing and Qilin battery (with higher unit profit) to account for ~70-80% EV battery shipments in FY25, from current 30-40%. CATL continues to adopt a prudent capacity expansion plan, and the marginal CAPEX pick up in 3Q is to accommodate solid demand growth. On the back of solid growth outlook, CATL is only trading at 16.6x 2025E PE, 1S.D. below its historical average.

Global X China EV and Battery ETF (2845 HK) invests in leading companies across China EV and Battery value chains. Our positive outlook for China EV sector is bolstered by strong EV demand, supportive trade-in policy, improved competitive landscape, and lowered financing costs in a rate cut cycle. Battery sector is also nearing an inflection point with improving supply-demand dynamics as battery makers react to overcapacity issues through more rationalized Capex. In addition, the continue decrease in lithium prices should also lower the costs for battery and automakers and thus support better profitability outlook across the value chain.

Related Global X ETF

Global X Electric Vehicle and Battery ETF
(2845 HK)
SEHK Listing Date 17 Jan 2020
Reference Index Solactive China Electric Vehicle and Battery Index NTR
Primary Exchange Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Ongoing Charges Over A Year 0.68%p.a.
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