Korea Entertainment - Ready for Revival - Global X ETFs Hong Kong

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Korea Entertainment – Ready for Revival

By: Lizzy Liu

Korea entertainment sector has experienced a strong rally this month, with four leading players -HYBE, YG, SM and JYP – posting 10%, 24%, 18% and 51% MTD growth, respectively. This is mainly driven by the industry’s resilience to potential tariff hike and improving fundamental in 2025, fuelled by top artists’ comeback, China rebound, low base and improved monetization. We also see that the industry is regaining traction, as Blackpink’s Rosé and Bruno Mars are topping the charts with their collaboration song “APT”, generating fresh buzz for Korean culture. The four leading Korean entertainment companies together accounted for 44% of the Global X K-pop and Culture ETF (3158 HK).

A “Tariff-Immune” Play

The entertainment industry, particularly through the lens of fandom (IP), holds a unique advantage for growth, especially in light of potential tariff policies from Donald Trump. If the Trump administration enacts universal tariffs, it could pose a significant challenge to the export-oriented Korean economy. However, the realm of fandom remains largely unaffected by such tariffs. Therefore, while the Korean stock market experienced volatility due to concerns over Trump’s policies this month (-2% MTD), the stock performance of the four leading entertainment companies thrived (+10%/24%/18%/51% for HYBE/YG/SM/JYP MTD).

Improving Fundament in 2025

Overall, the development status of the semiconductor industry in China still lags behind that of leading global players. One of the most significant gaps lies in semiconductor materials and equipment, where China has yet to achieve parity with the top technological leaders. Since the U.S. began imposing restrictions on access to key semiconductor technologies and components for China’s top technology companies like Huawei and SMIC in 2018, China’s semiconductor industry has made noticeable technology progress, marked by increased manufacturing capability for advanced-process-node chips, gradual migration from selling low-/mid-end products to more high-end products, such as high-performance 32-bit MCUs, and breakthroughs in previously untouched high-tech areas like self-developed CPUs.

We expect the ongoing government support and strengthening CAPEX will continuously support the growth of China semiconductor industry and the expansion of local capacities. In 2023, semiconductor CAPEX in China surged to $30 billion, nearly three times the $11 billion spent in 2019. China’s capacity expansions are expected to remain elevated in the coming years, estimated at $40-44 billion annually, driven by robust demand of domestic production lines by the local players.

We are positive on the K-pop entertainment sector in 2025 and expect accelerated growth, driven by:

1) Return of top artists BTS and Blackpink: BTS will finish their military service next June, with a new album release anticipated in 2H25 and concert tours scheduled for 2026. Meanwhile, YG has announced Blackpink’s world tour in 2025, and the members have recently released solo songs, keeping their fans engaged and excited.

Therefore, album sales and performances revenue are expected to experience substantial growth. As of 2023, BTS and Blackpink’s sales accounted for 14% of the entire domestic album market, and the anticipated attendances for their upcoming world tours is expected to surpass the combined total of concert attendees for all other artist groups under their agency. With a combined YouTube subscriber count of 170 million, the comeback of the two groups is likely to generate heightened interest not only in their own albums but also in K-pop overall. Furthermore, the competitive dynamics within their fandoms may impact senior groups, creating a domino effect that could lead to a rebound in album sales.

Moreover, their return promise more than just increased album and concert revenues; it should also boost ROI across multiple businesses. For example, fandom platforms are poised to see a surge in user traffic, while younger artists under same labels can showcase opening acts at top artists’ concerts.

2) Album sales recovery from a low base and China market rebound: The year 2024 was challenging due to a slowdown in Chinese exports and an agreement among major agencies to curb excessive competition and channel stuffing. Despite the expected incremental sales from top artists’ comeback in 2025, China’s export data finally showed a strong rebound in Jun-Sep 2024, after a long-muted period since June 2023. Additionally, the Chinese government has waived visa requirements for South Koreans, signalling positive signs for improved business conditions.

3) Improved monetization of fandom platforms: HYBE’s Weverse is launching new subscription and advertisement models in Dec 2024, while DearU, in which SM owns 31.2% stake and JYP 18.1%, joined a partnership with Tencent Music Entertainment to provide its direct messaging service within QQ Music in China. This move has also been read as a signal of relaxation of China’s informal ban on Korean content. Therefore, Weverse is likely to narrow its losses in 2025 and DearU would suggest larger value contribution to SM and JYP.

Global X K-pop and Culture ETF
(3158 HKD)
Listing Date 19 Mar 2024
Reference Index Solactive K-pop and Culture Index
Primary Exchange Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Total Expense Ratio 0.68% p.a.
Product Page Link

Source: Mirae Asset; Data as of November 2024.

Authored by:

Lizzy Liu

3 Dec 2024

Date : 3 Dec 2024

Category : Research & Insights

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