Hong Kong High Dividend Strategy Outperforms Amid Global Market Turbulence - Global X ETFs Hong Kong

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Hong Kong High Dividend Strategy Outperforms Amid Global Market Turbulence

By: Jeff Huang

Hong Kong High Dividend Strategy once again demonstrated its resilient and defensive nature amid global market turbulence caused by the coincidental timing of surprising BOJ rate hike, JPY Carry Trade Unwind, soft US macro data, and disappointing earnings of some US Big Tech over the past few weeks. Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index continued to deliver outperformance compared to other broad-based China A Share/Hong Kong Market Indexes YTD1 thanks to increasing investor interests in defensive and high yield sectors under market volatility and macro uncertainty. With Hong Kong listed names offering additional 1.5ppts dividend yield2. compared to A Share market, and concerns around RMB depreciation (due to US tariff uncertainty) lingers, we should be seeing more southbound inflows that could support Hong Kong Market performance. In addition, dividend yield of over 7% (HSHDYI Index)3. in Hong Kong market should be more appealing to international investors as global central banks enter into rate cut cycle and fears over a potential US recession mount.

Undemanding Valuation Offers Downside Protection

The core to Hong Kong High Dividend Strategy’s defensive nature is low valuation. Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index Currently Trades at 5.8x 12m Forward PE, substantially lower than overall Hong Kong market (Hang Seng Index at 8.1x), A Share (CSI 300 at 10.8x), and Global EM peers (MSCI EM at 11.6x)4 , offering limited downside risks. In addition, its robust Free Cash Flow yield of 17% and relatively conservative dividend payout ratio should ensure sustainability of dividend yield.

A series of supportive policies also point to a more benign environment for high dividend strategies. “Nine Measures” issued in April 2024 called for higher shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchase, which we believe is arguably the most direct way of uplifting the attractiveness of and reviving investor confidence in China market. In addition, larger portion of high dividend stocks are SOEs, which are set to benefit from “Valuation with Chinese Characteristics” as there have been more focuses on elevating operational efficiency that has historically led to a valuation discount for SOEs. Potential dividend tax exemptions for mainland Individual investors buying Hong Kong Stocks via Stock Connect5 could be a catalyst to stimulate further Southbound Inflow.

Global X Hang Seng High Dividend Yield ETF (3110 HKD) is Hong Kong’s largest and most liquid high dividend ETF delivering over 7% dividend yield with semi-annual dividend payments. 3110 HK offers lower volatility through investing in 50 Hong Kong listed high dividend stocks, subject to annual rebalancing.

Authored by:

Jeff Huang

16 Aug 2024

Date : 16 Aug 2024

Category : Research & Insights

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